刊行物

内容紹介

The purpose of this paper is to examine the linkages of the Shanghai economy with the rest of China (ROC) and the rest of the world (ROW) using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model based on the input-output tables of 1997 and 2002. The model distinguishes 14 sectors and captures both demand and supply side linkages. Based on relationships observed during the sample period, the paper offers simulations for the 2002-2010 period. The results indicate that with respect to ROC, Shanghai is more of a supplier than a source of demand. With respect to ROW, however, Shanghai is both a supplier and a source of demand, reflecting a high degree of integration of Shanghai with the world market (globalization). Because of the two way integration with the world market and the large domestic demand that it caters to, Shanghai is more in a position to withstand adjustments in the exchange rate of Yuan.