[Video Archive] Video Streaming of our AGI Seminar “Understanding Korea’s Ultra-Low Birth Rate: A Structural Analysis of Marriage, Women’s Education, and Economic Growth” is now available on YouTube

Video archive of our AGI Seminar held online on Wednesday, May 14, 2025 is now available on YouTube.
Click the link below to watch the full video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk8A74I2zjg

Title: Understanding Korea’s Ultra-Low Birth Rate: A Structural Analysis of Marriage, Women’s Education, and Economic Growth

Abstract: Over the past half-century, the Republic of Korea has experienced steep declines in fertility and marriage rates, accompanied by rising incomes, higher levels of women’s education, increased female labour force participation and mounting work–life balance pressures. This study examines these concurrent trends using microdata analysis and a structural macroeconomic model. Survival model estimates from longitudinal data (1998–2022) reveal that higher women’s college attainment and rising housing costs reduce the likelihood of marriage, while increased women’s labour force participation and rising child education costs also lower the probability of having a child. Additionally, higher income and homeownership enhances the likelihood of both marriage and childbirth. Building on these findings, this study develops an overlapping generations model incorporating endogenous family formation and women’s time allocation, within the context of gender inequality in households and labour markets. Simulation results suggest that policies aimed at reducing child-rearing and education costs, while promoting gender equality at home and in labour markets could increase the fertility rate from the current 0.72 to as high as 1.18. The simulation results further reveal that, over the past 30 years, along with changes in women’s education, income and labour market participation, rising costs of child-rearing, child education and marriage have significantly contributed to the decline in marriage and fertility rates.

Language: English presentation and material

Presenter: Prof. Jong-Wha Lee, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Korea University, Korea 

date：2025.06.09
Category：Seminars