Tues., Sept. 20, 2022: AGI Seminar “How and Why Has Economic Growth Slowed in 21st Century Thailand?” (online) [finished]

We invite researchers who are engaged in research on Asia and hold AGI Seminars.

Your participation is more than welcome! In order to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus, this seminar will be held online.
*Please refer to the following for details.

Date and Time

Tuesday, September 20, 2022 from 2:00 pm to 4:00 pm
*A question-and-answer session is scheduled at the end of the presentation.

Participation Fee

Free

Language

English presentation and materials

Presenter

Dr. Eric D. Ramstetter, Professor Emeritus, AGI; and Visiting Professor, Thammasat University, Thailand

Title

How and Why Has Economic Growth Slowed in 21st Century Thailand?

Abstract

During the first decades of the 21st century, the Thai economy has grown much more slowly than during most of the post-World War II era, with the growth rate of real per capita GDP (in baht) falling from 6.7 percent annually in 1990-1996 to 4.8 percent during the recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis in 2000-2006, and then only 2.7 percent in 2006-2019, after the military overthrew an elected government with near majority support in 2006. This kind of long-term decline in growth would not normally be expected in an economy with nominal per capita GDP that was still only US$7.849 in 2019 and plunged to US$7,189 in 2020 after the covid-19 pandemic. Facilitating at least another decade relatively rapid growth (e.g., of 2000-2006 levels or higher) thus seems to be an important policy goal for Thailand to strive for as it seeks to improve the lives of its citizens.
This paper focuses on identifying economically meaningful patterns and trends observed in data, illustrating important aspects of Thailand’s economy. These include indicators of economic growth and inflation rates, aggregate demand components, industry-level output, exports, capital stocks, employment, and labor compensation, as well as indicators on infrastructure, health, education, and the regional and household distributions of income and per capita GDP, imports, and import protection. The aim is to present a meaningful overview of Thai economic performance and how it affects average Thais. To this end, it is crucial to highlight Thailand’s pronounced economic heterogeneity because economic performance has varied substantially among industries, regions, and the economic activities considered.
Unfortunately, in late 2022, Thailand and most developing economies face huge negative, international externalities that both constitute important existential threats. The first is the deadly military, political, and economic conflict between two huge military alliances, China and Russia and their allies on one hand, and NATO members, Japan, Korea, and Singapore, on the other. Balancing economic and political relations with China and the NATO/Asia alliance will be particularly important for Thailand because all of these economies are important economic partners. But, even if the military, political, and economic tensions recede soon, which seems unlikely in Sep 2022, Thailand and the rest of the world face a very urgent need to reduce global carbon emissions very substantially and very quickly. If emissions are not reduced, there is now substantial evidence that countries, islands, and cities located in low elevations (like Bangkok) will most likely be totally under water by the end of this century, if not decades earlier. However, Thai policy does not currently prioritize environmental protection or the long-term survival of coastal, low-lying cities like Bangkok. Rather, it promotes inefficient energy use through price subsidies for gasoline, electricity, etc., that are common in many developing economies.

To Participate

Please send an E-mail to office@agi.or.jp with your name, affiliation and phone number clearly stated.
(We will send you a Zoom link for participation via E-mail by Tuesday, September 20.)

Deadline for Participation Request

Your E-mail must be sent to us by the morning of Friday, September 16.

Leaflet

AGI SEMINAR ON TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20 [in PDF Format]

TO PARTICIPATE ONLINE (REQUESTS FROM AGI)

You can either download the Zoom application in advance (1) or participate via a browser without downloading the Zoom application (2).
Please choose one of the above two methods.
*If you are using a Smartphone, please choose (1).

(1) TO PARTICIPATE BY DOWNLOADING THE ZOOM APPLICATION
① Please download an online distribution application “Zoom” (free of charge) onto your computer or Smartphone.
*Click Here for How to Download the Application

You can download the application onto your computer by clicking the 【ダウンロード】 button.

You can also download the application from these pages.
・For iPhones and iPads
» Download Zoom Application

・For Android phones
» Download Zoom Application

② We will send you a Zoom link to the E-mail address provided in your participation request E-mail by the day before the seminar.

③ Please click and open the Zoom link between 1:45 pm and 2:00 pm on Tuesday, September 20. ⇒ You will be asked to wait in a “Waiting Room.”

④ When it is time to start the seminar (2:00 pm), we will let all participants in at once.

⑤ A question-and-answer session is scheduled at the end of the presentation. If you would like to ask any questions, please either “raise your hand” or unmute your microphone and start talking. *You can also ask questions by sending chat messages.

(2) TO PARTICIPATE VIA A BROWSER WITHOUT DOWNLOADING THE ZOOM APPLICATION (ONLY FOR COMPUTERS)

① We will send you a Zoom link to the E-mail address provided in your participation request E-mail by the day before the seminar.

② Please click and open the Zoom link between 1:45 pm and 2:00 pm on Tuesday, September 20.

③ Please click 『ブラウザから参加』 at the bottom portion of your screen (if not displayed, please click 『ここをクリック』). ⇒ You will be asked to wait in a “Waiting Room.”

④ When it is time to start the seminar (2:00 pm), we will let all participants in at once.

⑤ A question-and-answer session is scheduled at the end of the presentation. If you would like to ask any questions, please either “raise your hand” or unmute your microphone and start talking. *You can also ask questions by sending chat messages.

【NOTE】

◇ Participants’ microphones will be turned on at the beginning. Please make sure to mute your microphone during the presentation. During a question-and-answer session scheduled at the end of the presentation, please unmute your microphone.
◇ If you would like to turn off your audio (microphone) and image (video), please click the microphone icon and video icon at the bottom left portion of your screen. The icons will be crossed by a red diagonal line.
◇ Depending on your computer or Wi-Fi signal strength, there could be a case where you will not be able to participate in the seminar or you will lose an internet connection in the middle of the seminar. However, we are unable to deal with those cases individually. Your understanding is greatly appreciated.

date：2022.09.13
Category：Seminars