Wed., May 14, 2025: AGI Seminar “Understanding Korea’s Ultra-Low Birth Rate: A Structural Analysis of Marriage, Women’s Education, and Economic Growth” (online)

We invite researchers who are engaged in research on Asia and hold AGI Seminars. Your participation is more than welcome!

*This seminar is free of charge and will be held online.

*Please refer to the following for details.

Date and Time

Wednesday, May 14, 2025 from 2:00 pm to 4:00 pm
*A question-and-answer session is scheduled at the end of the presentation.

Presenter

Dr. Jong-Wha Lee, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Korea University, Korea

Title

Understanding Korea’s Ultra-Low Birth Rate: A Structural Analysis of Marriage, Women’s Education, and Economic Growth

Abstract

Over the past half-century, the Republic of Korea has experienced steep declines in fertility and marriage rates, accompanied by rising incomes, higher levels of women’s education, increased female labour force participation and mounting work–life balance pressures. This study examines these concurrent trends using microdata analysis and a structural macroeconomic model. Survival model estimates from longitudinal data (1998–2022) reveal that higher women’s college attainment and rising housing costs reduce the likelihood of marriage, while increased women’s labour force participation and rising child education costs also lower the probability of having a child. Additionally, higher income and homeownership enhances the likelihood of both marriage and childbirth. Building on these findings, this study develops an overlapping generations model incorporating endogenous family formation and women’s time allocation, within the context of gender inequality in households and labour markets. Simulation results suggest that policies aimed at reducing child-rearing and education costs, while promoting gender equality at home and in labour markets could increase the fertility rate from the current 0.72 to as high as 1.18. The simulation results further reveal that, over the past 30 years, along with changes in women’s education, income and labour market participation, rising costs of child-rearing, child education and marriage have significantly contributed to the decline in marriage and fertility rates.

Language

English presentation and material(s)

Presenter Biography

Jong-Wha Lee is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Korea University. He previously served as Chief Economist at the ADB and worked as an economist at the IMF. He also served as Senior Adviser for International Economic Affairs to the former President of South Korea. Lee has taught at the Australian National University, Columbia University, Harvard University, and Peking University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

To Participate

1. Online Registration
https://forms.gle/FPMtZ8hSoZk7FVuB9

2. E-mail Registration
Please send us an e-mail at office@agi.or.jp with your name, affiliation and phone number.

We will send you a Zoom link for participation via e-mail by the day before the seminar.

Registration Deadline

Tuesday, May 13 at 12:00 pm

How to Join Us Online

date：2025.04.17
Category：Seminars