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From Kitakyushu to the world: AGI, a research institute that studies Asia's economy and society
The Reliability of China’s Growth Figures: A Survey of Recent Statistical Controversies
| Author | Oleksandr Movshuk |
|---|---|
| Date of Publication | 2002. 12 |
| No. | 2002-35 |
| Download | 269KB |
Contents Introduction
This paper reviews the recent controversy regarding the reliability of China’s official growth statistics, following the discovery by Rawski (2001) of a suspicious nexus of high economic growth and declining energy consumption in China during 1997-2000. After summarizing alternative estimates of China’s economic growth during the reform period, two sources of exaggerated growth figures are examined in detail: (i) political pressure to report high economic growth at the local level, and (ii) the use of obsolete statistical methodology that persistently underestimates price inflation and exaggerates real economic growth. Then the paper estimates the likely effect of these two factors on China’s reported economic growth.